--- title: 'Week 5: Ads and Elections' author: Janet Hernandez date: '2022-10-10' hero: /images/hero-3.jpg excerpt: ~ This week, I look at how campaign ad spending has an effect on my existing models. I will specifically look at FEC election data and see if I can find a strong indicator of prediction for my model this week using ad data. ---

My Existing Model

New local model that includes district level data on polling, incumbency, and local employment data is much more accurate. R-squared of 0.73 which is the highest so far. This is only when I use for DemMajorVotePct. When I do DemSeats(which my previous models used) as my outcome variable, I get a lower R-squared of 0.50 exactly.

Below is a plot of the actual outcomes from the 2018 election from which im pulling my predictive modeling data from.

Now I have to add the variable of ad spending on a local level. I’ve gone ahead and downloaded data from the FEC for 2018 election spending data. This isn’t exactly the ad spend per campaign but I am using it as a proxy by making the assumption that the more money a particular race / candidate has overall translates to how much it is spending in ads.

Observations 448
Dependent variable DemVotesMajorPercent
Type OLS linear regression
F(4,443) 312.97
R² 0.74
Adj. R² 0.74
Est. S.E. t val. p
(Intercept) 77.96 3.42 22.77 0.00
avg -6.73 0.19 -35.15 0.00
Unemployed_prct 0.35 0.89 0.39 0.70
winner_candidate_incIncumbent 4.96 1.04 4.79 0.00
Receipts -0.00 0.00 -3.02 0.00
Standard errors: OLS

References

Bafumi, J., Erikson, R., & Wlezien, C. (2018). Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information. PS: Political Science & Politics, 51(S1), 7-11. doi:10.1017/S1049096518001579

Ballotpedia. (2018). United States House of Representatives elections, 2018. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

Ballotpedia. (2022). United States Congress elections, 2022. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2022

Congressional candidate data summary tables - FEC.gov. (2022). Retrieved 16 October 2022, from https://www.fec.gov/campaign-finance-data/congressional-candidate-data-summary-tables/?year=2022&segment=18

Cook Political Report. (2022). PVI Map and District List. https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list

Gerber, A.S., Gimpel, J. G., Green, D. P., & Shaw, D. R. (2011). How Large and Long-lasting Are the Persuasive Effects of Televised Campaign Ads? Results from a Randomized Field Experiment. American Political Science Review, 105(1), 135–150. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305541000047X

Wesleyan Media Project. (2022, October 6). Democrats Out-Pacing GOP in Senate Races. https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-100622/